This may be the most perplexing period since the reform and opening up
Today, we come to discuss the issues of China’s reform and future direction with a sense of anxiety and confusion.
Recently, I have been saying that these past few years may be the most perplexing period since China’s reform and opening up, and this perplexity seems to be a bit different from before.
In the past three decades, we sometimes had confusion, but the confusion at that time was like this: we were walking on a very clear road, but we encountered difficulties and obstacles in the middle. Despite this, we were clear in our hearts that as long as we overcame these difficulties and eliminated these obstacles, we could continue to move forward. The road was clear.
But this time it’s a bit different. This time, it’s like we’re driving in the Gobi Desert or the desert. The road ahead is very clear, but as we drive, the road disappears. Ahead is a sand dune, and the wheel tracks go in different directions, some deep and some shallow. Which one might eventually work, and might be a road, and which one might not work, and it’s not a road at all? Now we’re a bit confused.
More realistic, more immediate, and more urgent issues
So, we are now in an unprecedented state of confusion. How to view these confusions? How to get out of this predicament? Everyone is talking about this this afternoon, and the core word in this is “reform”.
But I don’t know if you have this feeling: even the most specific, most immediate, and most realistic reforms will make people feel very, very far away from us, not to mention those far-reaching and deep-seated reforms. Those far-reaching and deep-seated reform ideas sometimes sound like a dream.
What does this mean? It means that there are other things before the reform, and without solving these things, the reform cannot even begin. For example, in the 1980s, the reason why China’s reform was able to start was because there was an ideological emancipation movement. Without this ideological emancipation movement, there would be no reform in the following 30 years. We are now facing similar problems. Without solving those most realistic, most immediate, and most urgent problems, reform cannot even begin.
What is the most realistic, most immediate, and most urgent? I want to say from the most abstract level, there are three aspects: the first is the country’s sense of direction, the second is the sense of security of the elites and the upper class, and the third is the sense of hope of the common people. I think that if these three aspects do not have a most basic answer, a most basic framework now, other reforms cannot even begin.
The most crucial thing is the country’s sense of direction
Now everyone is anxious about the economic downturn. I have been to many places and clearly feel that even in very remote areas, this sense of depression clearly exists. But in fact, it is not just an economic downturn now. Behind the economic downturn, society is stagnating, the system is stagnating, and even the government is stagnating. Of course, “stagnation” is an exaggeration. To be precise, it is slowing down. In some places, it is openly turning slowly and secretly stopping. Things like copying party constitutions, which are formalistic, are booming, while the real things related to economic and social development are turning very slowly.
Some people say that this is caused by anti-corruption efforts. I think this is a factor, but not entirely. Some cadres say that they don’t know how to do things now, and they make mistakes as soon as they do them.
What does this latter reason explain? It explains the issue of the country’s sense of direction.
In the past thirty years of reform and opening up, we have had smooth times and difficult times, but whether it was smooth or difficult, even when we suffered setbacks, the country’s sense of direction, that is, the question of which direction the country is going, has never been blurred. Which direction to go? Towards modernization, towards a market economy in the economy, and towards democracy and the rule of law in politics and society.
But in recent times, this sense of direction has become somewhat blurred. For a period of time, people even felt a sense of the Cultural Revolution returning. It is against this background that people’s sense of the country’s direction has become blurred. Don’t think this is a very abstract issue. Just in terms of the impact on the economy, it is very obvious.
This sense of direction is the most important. If China’s sense of direction is not clear now, what reform, what transformation, I think it is not even worth talking about. Therefore, the first thing to solve is the problem of the sense of direction.
And to solve the problem of the sense of direction, in principle, there is actually nothing difficult. After the 18th National Congress, we held two very good meetings and issued two very good documents. One is the Third Plenary Session’s document on comprehensively deepening reform, the most important of which are two points: realizing the modernization of national governance and giving play to the decisive role of the market. The other is the Fourth Plenary Session, the rule of law, governing the country according to law. The problem is to truly move in this direction.
Related to the country’s sense of direction is the sense of security of the elites and the upper class
In the legal sense, in the sense of personality, everyone is equal. This is of course correct. But at the same time, we must admit that the abilities of different people are not the same. What is a good society? A good society must allow the most capable people to stand out, and at the same time, regulate them to make their behavior more beneficial to society. The past thirty years of reform and opening up, compared to before reform and opening up, an important change lies here.
In the past thirty years, China’s economy has developed rapidly. You can find all sorts of reasons, but an important reason is that the most capable people have had opportunities and have played an important role in economic and social development.
But in recent years, accompanied by the blurring of the country’s sense of direction, a considerable number of elites are running away, and funds are flowing out. The most obvious people running away now are the rich and the knowledgeable. Even some very moderate people, people who are very supportive of the system, are starting to run away. Those who haven’t run are also in a state of panic. Behind this is the issue of the elites’ sense of security.
I have had a lot of contact with entrepreneurs. As businessmen, and they also have to be responsible for feeding a group of people, of course they have to work hard to run their businesses and look for opportunities. You can clearly feel that many people are looking for short-term opportunities, and they are unwilling to consider some long-term plans and long-term investments. Why? Because they can’t see how this society will go, and they are even worried about the safety of their property.
Therefore, now to get out of the economic predicament, the sense of security of the elites and the upper class is very important. And the most basic guarantee of security is the rule of law. Temporary policy preferences, and even some measures that emphasize private enterprises, can no longer solve the problem.
The common people’s sense of hope cannot be shattered
It should be said that before and after the 18th National Congress, the common people should have been full of hope. For many years before that, there was inaction, and the problems had accumulated more and more, some of which had become deeply rooted and difficult to reverse. People expected a new leadership team to have the courage and ability to face this problem. After the 18th National Congress, the fight against tigers and anti-corruption further made people see hope.
But it should be noted that in the past year or two, the mentality of society, the mentality of the common people, is undergoing subtle changes, and even on anti-corruption, there are all kinds of opinions.
This situation has coincided with the economic cycle. I have recently visited some places, including rural areas. As far as I have seen, in a considerable number of places, farmers’ income decreased last year. For example, in Hebei, the price of corn was one yuan and two cents the year before last, and last year it was only seventy cents or less than eighty cents. How could farmers’ income possibly increase? According to relevant reports, last year, the farmers’ cash income decreased by more than one hundred billion yuan just from the price of grain. And according to the current overall economic situation, the income of farmers working outside is unlikely to increase significantly.
What about the cities? De-capacity, involving the transfer or even unemployment of millions of people. Objectively speaking, the people involved this time are fewer than in the mid-to-late 1990s, and the conditions prepared by the government are better than that time, but after all, it involves the livelihood of millions of people.
We must give people clear and stable expectations for the future
The above problems are all about expectations for the future. It should be noted that in the period of social transformation, forming clear and stable expectations for the future is crucial.
The issue of expectations can only be clarified when placed in the historical context of China’s social transformation. I don’t quite agree with the statement that the reform is not moving forward or has stopped now. I think that the situation we are facing now is that the roads of the past two thirty-year periods have basically been walked, and their potential has basically been released. I don’t want to discuss how to evaluate the sensitive topic of the two thirty-year periods, I just want to say that from an objective point of view, the potential of these two thirty-year periods has been released. Now it is not simply a matter of following the road of which thirty-year period.
Now society is about to enter a new thirty-year period. This new thirty-year period should be built on the basis of serious reflection on the past two thirty-year periods, so as to put forward a transcendent concept. This concept should reflect the inheritance and transcendence of the past two thirty-year periods, should reflect the greatest common divisor of the interests of 1.3 billion people, should reflect the universal values of mankind, and should reflect the common direction of human progress.
In recent years, I have been emphasizing the issue of fairness and justice, just to discuss this issue.
Discover more from 自由档案馆
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.