On September 30, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.06%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 10.67%. It should be noted that this is not the rise of a certain stock, but the rise of the entire market, a historically rare surge.
I don’t understand finance, nor do I have an A-share account, but I understand a little bit of basic common sense:
The rise of a stock ultimately requires the company to use profits to support its value; the rise of a stock market ultimately requires the incremental economic development of this market to support its value.
If we deduce the macroeconomic fundamentals from the performance of the Chinese stock market in the past few days, the following possibilities may be derived.
First possibility:
The operating conditions of China’s private enterprises have suddenly improved greatly, with a significant increase in orders, rapid growth in performance, and enterprises are full of hope for the future, so they are accelerating the expansion of scale, increasing job positions, and improving employee income. As a result, the income of the vast number of wage earners has also increased rapidly, and their consumption capacity and willingness to consume have greatly improved.
Second possibility:
China and the United States have stopped the process of economic decoupling and confrontation, and instead expanded and deepened economic cooperation. European and American capital continues to increase investment in China, comprehensively reducing tariffs on Chinese goods, and Chinese manufacturing sells well globally, rapidly expanding its market share. With the application of high-tech, the profit margin of Chinese manufacturing has rapidly increased…
Third possibility:
China’s population structure has undergone rapid and drastic changes, with tens of millions of children and highly educated young people of childbearing age being introduced from foreign countries or other planets, completely reversing the aging and inverted pyramid development trend of Chinese society, and people are full of confidence in the future society’s wealth creation ability and social innovation vitality.
Fourth possibility:
China’s technological innovation has achieved epoch-making and significant results, such as the commercial application of controlled nuclear fusion technology, the independent mass production of 3-nanometer lithography machines, and the president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences accidentally falling off a cliff and picking up the technological secrets left by the Trisolarans, making China leapfrog to become the world’s number one and far ahead of the technological innovation power.
Fifth possibility:
Lai Ching-te led the 23 million military and civilians of Taiwan (including Lin Chi-ling) to surrender and return, and China completed the great cause of reunification without a single soldier, and countries around the world sent congratulatory messages and expressed their willingness to strengthen economic cooperation and cultural exchanges with China.
I carefully rubbed my eyes and searched for the above possibilities in Chinese and English, and found that none of them have become a reality or are about to become a reality.
So I thought of the sixth possibility:
Has China decided to start piloting the legalization of gambling from the securities trading market?
Discover more from 自由档案馆
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.