01
In recent days, the Ministry of Civil Affairs disclosed the national marriage registration data for 2024. The data shows that in 2024, the number of marriage registrations nationwide was only 6.106 million couples, while the number of divorce registrations reached 2.621 million couples. Compared to 2023, the number of marriage registrations decreased by 1.574 million couples, a decrease of about 20.5%, while the number of divorce registrations increased by 28,000 couples, an increase of about 1.1%.
Such a decline is truly comparable to the struggling A-share market, and can even be called a pair of Crouching Dragon and Phoenix Chick.
Another social problem associated with the decline in the number of marriages is that the number of new births each year is also decreasing year by year. The latest data shows that the number of new births in our society each year is already less than the number of deaths, which is the so-called negative growth—this is also comparable to the annual rate of return on assets held by the A-share market.
In the past two years, although many places have gradually relaxed restrictions on non-marital births, that is, when registering the household registration of newborns, they no longer require a marriage certificate and ask “where’s dad?”, but after all, non-marital births still account for a minority in the current national conditions and social reality.
Due to our culture and traditions, more adults still hope to give their children a complete family.
02
However, why is the number of marriage registrations declining year by year? And this is not an occasional phenomenon, but a continuous decline for many years. Data shows that in 2013, the national marriage registration volume was 13.469 million couples, which began to decline year by year in 2014, and then fell below the 10 million mark in 2019, below the 8 million mark in 2021, and fell to 6.835 million couples in 2022, breaking the 7 million mark.
In 2023, although it rebounded to 7.68 million couples, this is also very similar to the trend of the A-share market. When it falls too much and becomes numb, it will always rebound slightly—you think it gives you hope, but in fact, there is even deeper despair behind it!
And, the 2024 national marriage registration data has created a new low.
So, will this be the lowest? Lao Xu believes that if you think this is the lowest, then you are too naive and have definitely not been beaten by the A-share market. If you don’t believe it, take a look at the trend of certain A-share stocks, you will find that there is never a lowest, only lower.
03
Since the decline in the number of marriage registrations year by year is an undeniable fact. So, are the current adults, especially those of marriageable age, really unwilling to get married?
Could it be that the younger generation who grew up in the 90s and 00s (and of course, some in the 70s and 80s) have changed their views and regard marriage as a shackle and a flood beast?
Although Lao Xu has not conducted a social survey, just by thinking with his toes, everyone’s unwillingness to get married is definitely not a change in concept (of course, there is also), neither like the generation of the May Fourth Movement, wanting freedom of marriage and love, nor are they all focused on their work and career, without thinking about getting married and starting a family.
Lao Xu even dares to say that, except for thorough singleists, most adult men and women still yearn for marriage.
As for the so-called marriage being like a besieged city, people outside want to get in, and people inside want to get out, perhaps it has some philosophical meaning, but the premise is to step in first, and then there is the matter of going out. This is not, the data for divorce registrations last year was 2.621 million couples—but the base of existing marriages is very large, so more people still choose to stay inside the city.
In sociology, the family formed by marriage is the smallest and most basic unit that constitutes society. With a harmonious family, there is national prosperity.
04
According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory, human needs have five levels, which are physiological needs, safety needs, love and belonging needs, esteem needs, and self-actualization needs.
And marriage runs through these five levels, from the physiological needs at the bottom of the pyramid to the self-actualization needs at the top. But since it is a universal need, why doesn’t everyone want it?
I think it’s not that they don’t need it, but more that they want it but can’t get it. This problem is too complicated if it is expanded. For example, some men will say: no house, no car, no betrothal gifts, it’s really unaffordable to marry; some men will also say: no job or the salary is too low, can’t find a girl willing to marry…
If we stand from the perspective of women, some girls will say: the person they want to marry is not willing to marry, and the ones they can marry are looked down upon. Marriage is a comedy for a day, and it turns into a tragedy after marriage. It’s better to perform their own solo show.
To describe it in a more artistic way, it’s because when life cannot give individuals stability, it’s also difficult to bear the weight of marriage.
As the saying goes: there are a thousand Hamlets in a thousand people’s eyes, and for those adults who are unwilling to get involved in marriage, perhaps there are also a thousand reasons.
05
Even if there are a thousand reasons, Lao Xu remembers that when he was studying, there was a cultural research term called representation. The decline in the number of marriage registrations is also a representation of this society, a mirror of the times.
If we look at the essence through the phenomenon, in fact, many simple truths, everyone understands in their hearts, you understand, I understand. Those who are unwilling to get married also understand in their hearts. It’s not that they don’t want to, but that they are really willing but unable!
As the saying goes, marriage belongs to the superstructure category, and the economic foundation determines the superstructure.
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