The involution between countries and people is intensifying.
I just got back from a gathering 10 minutes ago and couldn’t wait to write this to share my experience. It’s 3600 characters long, a bit long, but very informative. Please read it carefully.
There were 3 people at the gathering tonight.
A former colleague from Huawei, from Zhejiang, whose department is related to chips, happened to be in Chengdu on business these two days.
Another former colleague from Huawei, but he has already left Huawei and settled in Shanghai.
You may remember that I wrote an article in 2018 about a 43-year-old chip company executive being laid off. The one who told me this layoff story was the one from Shanghai.
This person from Shanghai has been assigned by the company to work in Sichuan and Chongqing these days. Hearing that the person from Zhejiang was in Chengdu on business, he came from Chongqing to attend this dinner.
The three of us worked on a project overseas together back then, eating and living together, and we formed a deep friendship.
I left Huawei and said goodbye to the communications industry; the person from Zhejiang worked at Huawei for over 10 years and is now retiring in a year (Huawei allows retirement at 45); the person from Shanghai left Huawei and changed jobs twice, but has been in the chip industry.
We sat down and exchanged a few greetings, and talked about the industry and work.
The person from Zhejiang said that he has been busy recently. What is he busy with? Because Huawei’s Mate60 series was officially released some time ago, once shipments start, the version iteration accelerates. Basically, it needs to be iterated once every six months, and there are many things to do when the volume increases, so he has been working overtime recently, running all over the country.
And a few years before the US imposed extreme sanctions, especially from 2020 to 2021, he basically went off work on time every day and was very, very idle, which was unprecedented in his more than 10 years at Huawei.
I asked him whether it’s better to be idle or busy.
The person from Zhejiang, with the typical shyness of a straight man from Huawei, said, ‘It’s better to be busy, after all, you can earn more money.’
Speaking of the Huawei Mate60 series, it was released half a year ago during the visit of the US Secretary of Commerce to China. At that time, the internet was full of praise for Huawei’s good performance, and it actually broke through the US sanctions and continued to produce high-end models.
But everyone is also wondering who made this 7-nanometer chip, which can actually be mass-produced and commercialized. Is it still TSMC?
The person from Shanghai said, what I know is:
This 7-nanometer chip comes from XXXX, headquartered in Shanghai. Although it can be produced, the yield rate is very low, only solving the problem of having something from nothing, and it is completely unable to compete in the market.
However, US sanctions have prevented chip giants like TSMC and Samsung from entering mainland China, and the huge demand for high-end mobile phones in China still exists, which has given domestic chip companies a huge opportunity. Therefore, market demand has brought a large number of orders to the upstream supply chain through Huawei’s Mate60.
In short, it is the Chinese people who voluntarily spend more money to buy domestic high-end mobile phones, supporting the entire domestic mobile phone supply chain represented by Huawei to survive, and live quite well, gradually approaching the world’s most advanced technology.
I asked the person from Zhejiang, is that right?
The person from Zhejiang nodded and said, ‘It should be,’ in a vague manner.
I didn’t want to ask him which sector he was in charge of at Huawei, lest I accidentally reveal a trade secret, so the topic ended there.
Let’s talk about Shanghai’s situation.
The person from Shanghai said that they didn’t have a good time last year because the sales of the entire industry were declining.
Work was already a headache, and what bothered him most was his son, who was in the second year of junior high school.
His son was originally quite diligent in his studies, but Shanghai’s education is too competitive, and no matter how hard he tried, he couldn’t compete. Gradually, the child couldn’t find a sense of accomplishment in his studies and gradually began to dislike studying.
And the children nowadays receive too much information. He doesn’t know where his son heard it from, but graduates from prestigious universities can’t find jobs, and master’s and doctoral students are also being hired at reduced salaries, so the child suddenly ‘figured it out’.
One night, he was working overtime at home, typing on the keyboard, and his son, who was doing homework in the next room, suddenly pushed the door open and said, ‘Dad, I don’t want to study.’ He asked why?
The child said:
You graduated from a prestigious university, or a graduate student, and now you’re at this age and still working overtime until so late?
I can’t get into a good university, and I’ll only be worse off than you.
He was struck by lightning when he heard his child’s words, thinking that if he hadn’t graduated from a prestigious university with a master’s degree and earned a million a year, how could he have bought his son an expensive Shanghai school district house.
But then he thought about the price of the house at the time, and then looked at the still high housing prices in Shanghai, even after the recent decline, and felt that his son was right. If he had just graduated with a master’s degree now, he would probably only be able to rely on his parents.
The father also figured it out and asked his son what he was going to do.
The child said, ‘How about I deliver food?’
The person from Shanghai and his wife discussed it, and decided that since studying was like this anyway, if he was willing to experience life, then go ahead, but he still had to go to school and read books.
The child was very happy, so every day after school, his father would complete the operation on his phone (requiring an adult to register and log in), and the child would ride a bicycle to deliver food, saying that he was busy until almost 11 o’clock at night, and could run about 10 orders a day, and the money he earned was directly used as pocket money.
From then on, the parent-child relationship improved by leaps and bounds, and the family was harmonious.
The person from Shanghai opened his phone and showed us the order-taking APP while he was talking.
The person from Zhejiang and I looked at each other, and we were stunned and our views were completely shattered…
The person from Zhejiang asked, ‘You can’t let him keep delivering food, can you?’
The person from Shanghai said, ‘He’s only 14 years old now. Maybe when he’s older, he can learn a skill or a technique, and support himself, or what else can he do?’
The person from Zhejiang sighed and said, ‘Oh, the children nowadays are really too competitive. Do you know what kind of degrees Huawei is hiring now? They’re all from Tsinghua, Peking University, 985 and 211 universities, or they’ve studied abroad, and there are many from Ivy League schools. Now, even a normal 985 graduate has to shed several layers of skin to get into Huawei.’
My wife works in an advertising company, and she said that the young employees nowadays are really different.
The post-95s young ladies in their company won’t stay a second longer after work, and they leave without hesitation. If the company wants to organize team building, that’s fine, but don’t arrange it on weekends to take up my rest time. They also tell the leaders that the company should give out more money instead of organizing team building.
Before the person from Zhejiang could finish speaking, the person from Shanghai took over the conversation and said, ‘I allowed my son to deliver food and didn’t force him to compete in his studies. Actually, there’s another reason.’
We asked what it was.
He said, ‘Have you used ChatGPT? Both the person from Zhejiang and I said we had.
The person from Shanghai said, ‘My son’s learning state will definitely not get him into a good university. If he went to an average school 20 years ago, he could still find a job, but isn’t ChatGPT replacing the jobs of children from ordinary schools now? Think about it, how many people will be laid off after this thing becomes popular? And the newly released Sora is too terrifying. Unless you compete to the top in terms of education, your future is still uncertain.
If that’s the case, why should I send him into the fire pit?’
What will the world be like in 10 years? Who knows? If he doesn’t want to study, then let it be. Anyway, my wife and I have figured it out.
The person from Zhejiang said, ‘Oh, don’t think that jobs with technical content are worry-free. Look at me, I’m in the chip industry, which is considered to have technical content. I finally made it to the point where I’m retiring in a year, but Huawei is now planning to change its policy, saying that the retirement age will be postponed to 50.’
Wow, then I have to work for another 6 years, how can I do this!
And there are rumors that if the company doesn’t renew the contract next time, the internal shares purchased before won’t be retained, and there will be no dividends.
From the outside, Huawei is all about glory, but from the inside, it’s all kinds of restrictions, and life isn’t easy.
I said, ‘Brother, be content. Even if you leave Huawei one day, with your halo, you can go anywhere.’
The person from Zhejiang showed a look of disdain and said, ‘You left too early, your rank isn’t high enough. You don’t know that Huawei’s non-compete agreement is notoriously strict in the industry.’
The person from Shanghai also laughed on the side.
He said, ‘I know, I know. I knew it when I left. Individuals can’t compete with the company. Just stay at Huawei and struggle, hahaha.’
The person from Zhejiang said, ‘Oh, you don’t know. I’m not only worried about work recently, but I’m most worried about my relatives borrowing money, that cousin who does代购, you remember, right? He was recently scammed.’
Both the person from Shanghai and I said we knew.
His cousin graduated from a junior college and made some money doing代购 with a small boss in the past few years. He was very successful in his hometown, and even his cousin, who worked in a big company, wasn’t as respected as him.
As a result, he recently got involved in a local cash loan.
In short, he provided funds to the lenders, and then the operator took the money to lend it out, and he had a stable return of more than a dozen points a year. To say the least, there was no problem with ‘outperforming inflation’.
Unexpectedly, the economy was so bad that the loans that were lent out began to go bad on a large scale and couldn’t be recovered. The operator himself ran away with the money, leaving a bunch of investors there.
His cousin lost all the money he had earned before, and now he has no way out, so he borrowed money from him, his brother.
The person from Zhejiang said, ‘I don’t have much money either, but how can I refuse? Everyone knows I work at Huawei.’
This time I laughed:
When I encounter relatives who make quick money like this, I never try to take advantage of them, but I will borrow money from them in advance, not for the purpose of borrowing money, but to let them know that I don’t have money, and don’t ask me to borrow money in the future, hahaha.
The gathering ends here.
Here are my thoughts, which may not be right, please criticize them.
1. Whether it’s the extreme sanctions suffered by Huawei or the education anxiety of the middle class, it’s all about the fact that the incremental growth is gone, and the involution between countries and people is intensifying.
It’s hard to say when the involution will end, but it will only be more cruel in the next few years.
The rapid development of the past has ended, and next, we will enter a period of ‘non-high-speed growth’ that most of us, including myself, have never experienced.
Ordinary people should just survive, cash is king, and the three middle-class suicide sets of millions of mortgage, family members not working, and two children attending international schools should be avoided.
2. Be vigilant about all investment products.
Just leave the cash in the card, and let it depreciate. As long as you admit that you are still an ordinary person, you have to accept the fate of wealth depreciation.
Only a very small number of people’s money can outpace inflation, but you are unlikely to be that very small number of people.
The circle says how to harvest the middle class? How to harvest the demolition households who have received huge compensation?
Gently and considerately reminding them to ‘outpace inflation’ is the fastest sickle.
3. It was a product of a specific era for small-town youths to take prestigious universities, go to big companies to get high salaries, buy houses, get married, and stay in big cities to become standard middle class. This kind of story will only become less and less in the future.
As parents, you must restrain your own delusions, especially parents with high education. You must realize that your high education is an accidental phenomenon, and it is more likely that your children are ordinary people or even academic dregs.
The middle class does not control the means of production, and no matter how high or how good the position is, it cannot be inherited, so the children of the middle class can only rely on the path, and repeat the path of their parents climbing the ladder of education.
Unfortunately, except for a very small number of children who are indeed suitable for exam-oriented education, most of the others will not have a future.
4. The intensification of exam-oriented education and the devaluation of education in society have become a vicious cycle that reinforces each other.
From the perspective of the asset-liability table of life, whether your child will be your asset or your liability in the future strongly depends on your parent-child relationship.
I don’t recommend that junior high school students go out to deliver food to experience life.
However, if the parent-child relationship is not in place, and you force a child who is not suitable for exam-oriented education to walk the single-plank bridge, I don’t recommend it even more.
I can only say that since the old road doesn’t work, it’s better to respect the child’s opinion and let him play his personality and strengths, and maybe he can find a new path.
Finally, everyone should be clear about one thing:
The college entrance examination is not a training mechanism, but a screening mechanism, so it is said that one general succeeds and ten thousand bones wither. As parents, you must figure out whether your child will be that general or that ten thousand bones.
The above article content only represents the author’s personal views and has nothing to do with industry research reports.
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