This may be the most perplexing period in the more than 30 years of reform and opening up
Today, we come to discuss the issues of China’s reform and future direction with a sense of anxiety and perplexity.
Recently, I have been saying that these past few years may be the most perplexing period in the more than 30 years of China’s reform and opening up, and this perplexity seems to be a little different from before.
In the past three decades, we sometimes had perplexities, but those perplexities were like this: we were walking on a very clear road, but we encountered difficulties and obstacles in the middle. Despite this, we were clear in our hearts that as long as we overcame these difficulties and eliminated these obstacles, we could continue to move forward. The road was clear.
But this time it’s a little different. This time, it’s like we’re driving on the Gobi Desert or in the desert. The roads ahead are very clear, but as we drive, the road disappears. In front of us is a sand dune, and the wheel tracks go in different directions, some deep and some shallow. Which one might eventually work, and might be a road, and which one might not work, and it’s not a road at all? We are a little confused now.
There are more realistic, more immediate, and more pressing issues than reform
Therefore, we are now in an unprecedented state of perplexity. How should we view these perplexities? How can we get out of this predicament? Everyone is talking about this this afternoon, and the most core word in this is “reform”.
But I don’t know if you have this feeling: even those most specific, most immediate, and most realistic reforms will make people feel very, very far away from us, not to mention those far-reaching and deep-seated reforms. Those far-reaching and deep-seated reform ideas sometimes sound like a dream.
What does this mean? It means that there are other things before reform. Without solving these things, reform is out of the question. For example, in the 1980s, the reason why China’s reform could start was because there was a movement of ideological emancipation. Without this movement of ideological emancipation, there would be no reform in the following 30 years. We are now facing similar problems. Without solving those most realistic, most immediate, and most urgent problems, reform is out of the question.
What are the most realistic, most immediate, and most urgent things?
I want to say from the most abstract level, there are three aspects: the first is the country’s sense of direction, the second is the sense of security of the elites and the upper class, and the third is the sense of hope of the common people. I think if these three aspects do not have a most basic answer and a most basic framework now, other reforms are simply out of the question.
The most crucial thing is the country’s sense of direction
Now everyone is anxious about the economic downturn. I have been to many places and clearly feel that this sense of depression exists even in very remote areas. But in fact, it is not just an economic downturn now. Behind the economic downturn, society is stagnating, the system is stagnating, and even the government is stagnating. Of course, stagnation is an exaggeration. To be precise, it is slowing down.
Some places are ostensibly turning but secretly stopping, and superficially turning but actually stopping. Things like copying party constitutions, which are formalistic, are booming, while the real things related to economic and social development are turning very slowly.
Some people say that this is caused by the corruption crackdown. I think this is a factor, but not entirely. Some cadres say that they don’t know how to do things now, and they make mistakes as soon as they do them.
What does this latter reason indicate? It indicates the problem of the country’s sense of direction. In the past three decades of reform and opening up, we have had smooth times and difficult times, but whether it was smooth or difficult, even when we were frustrated, the country’s sense of direction, that is, the question of which direction the country was going, has never been blurred. Which direction to go? Towards modernization, towards a market economy in the economy, and towards democracy and the rule of law in politics and society.
But in recent times, this sense of direction has become somewhat blurred. For a period of time, people even felt like the Cultural Revolution was making a comeback. It is against this background that people’s sense of the country’s direction has become blurred. Don’t think this is a very abstract problem. Just in terms of the impact on the economy, it is very obvious.
This sense of direction is the most important. If China’s sense of direction is not clear now, what reform, what transformation, I think it is simply out of the question. Therefore, we must first solve the problem of the sense of direction. And to solve the problem of the sense of direction, in principle, there is actually nothing difficult. After the 18th National Congress, we held two very good meetings and issued two very good documents. One was the document on comprehensively deepening reform of the Third Plenary Session, the most important of which were two places: realizing the modernization of national governance and giving play to the decisive role of the market. The other was the Fourth Plenary Session, the rule of law, governing the country according to law. The problem is to really move in this direction.
Related to the country’s sense of direction is the sense of security of the elites and the upper class
In the legal sense, in the sense of personality, everyone is equal. Of course, this is true. But at the same time, we have to admit that different people have different abilities. What is a good society? A good society must allow the most capable people to stand out, and at the same time, regulate them to make their behavior more beneficial to society. The past 30 years of reform and opening up, compared with before reform and opening up, an important change is here.
In the past three decades, China’s economy has developed rapidly. You can find all sorts of reasons, but an important reason is that the most capable people have had opportunities and have played an important role in economic and social development.
But in recent years, accompanying the blurred sense of the country’s direction, a considerable number of elites are running away, and capital is flowing out.
The most obvious people running away now are the rich and the knowledgeable. Even some very moderate people, people who are very supportive of the system, are starting to run away. Those who haven’t run are also in a state of panic. Behind this is the problem of the elites’ sense of security.
I have a lot of contact with entrepreneurs. As businessmen, and they also have to be responsible for feeding a group of people, of course they have to work hard to run their businesses and look for opportunities. You can clearly feel that many people are looking for short-term opportunities, and they are unwilling to consider long-term plans and long-term investments. Why? Because they can’t see how this society will go, and they are even worried about the safety of their property.
Therefore, now, if the economy wants to get out of the predicament, the sense of security of the elites and the upper class is very important. And the most basic guarantee of a sense of security is the rule of law. Temporary policy tilts, and even some measures that emphasize private enterprises, can no longer solve the problem.
The common people’s sense of hope cannot be shattered
It should be said that before and after the 18th National Congress, the common people should have been full of hope. For many years before that, there was inaction, and problems had accumulated more and more, and some had become irremediable. People expected a new leadership team to have the courage and ability to face this problem. After the 18th National Congress, the fight against tigers and the anti-corruption campaign further made people see hope.
But it should be noted that in the past year or two, the mentality of society, the mentality of the common people, is undergoing subtle changes, and even on the anti-corruption campaign, there are all kinds of opinions.
This situation has coincided with the economic cycle. I have recently visited some places, including rural areas. As far as I have seen, in a considerable number of places, farmers’ income decreased last year. For example, in Hebei, the yield of corn the year before last was 1.2 yuan, and last year it was only 0.7 yuan or less than 0.8 yuan. How could farmers’ income possibly increase? According to relevant reports, last year alone, farmers’ cash income decreased by more than 100 billion yuan due to grain prices. And according to the current overall economic situation, farmers’ income from working cannot increase much.
What about the cities? De-capacity, involving the transfer or even unemployment of millions of people. Objectively speaking, the people involved this time are fewer than those in the mid-to-late 1990s, and the conditions prepared by the government are better than those at that time, but after all, it involves the livelihood of millions of people.
We must give people a clear and stable expectation for the future
The above problems are all about expectations for the future. It should be noted that in the period of social transformation, forming a clear and stable expectation for the future is crucial.
The issue of expectations can only be clarified when placed in the historical context of China’s social transformation. I don’t quite agree with the statement that reform is not moving forward or has stopped now. I think the situation we are facing now is that the roads of the past two thirty years have basically been walked, and their potential has basically been released. I don’t want to discuss such a sensitive topic as how to evaluate the two thirty years. I just want to say that from an objective point of view, the potential of these two thirty years has been released. Now it is not simply a matter of moving forward along the road of which thirty years.
Now society is about to enter a new thirty years. This new thirty years should be built on the basis of a serious reflection on the past two thirty years, so as to put forward a transcendent idea. This idea should embody the inheritance and transcendence of the past two thirty years, should embody the greatest common divisor of the interests of 1.3 billion people, should embody the universal values of mankind, and should embody the common direction of human progress. I have been emphasizing the issue of fairness and justice in recent years, just to discuss this issue.
Author: Sun Liping, Professor of Sociology, Tsinghua University, Consultant of Southern Metropolis Daily Observation
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