Wang Ju Puts Ashore | China Suddenly Strangles Japan, Will Trade Sanctions Force Sanae Takaichi to Compromise? | Text Version

At the beginning of 2026, the world was not at peace. On January 2nd, U.S. President Trump sent special forces to Venezuela to capture Maduro, and then set his sights on Greenland. Amidst this turmoil, on January 6th, China’s Ministry of Commerce suddenly dropped a bombshell: it announced a comprehensive export control on Japan, involving a 168-page “Dual-Use Goods Catalogue” .

Unprecedented “Thunderous Measures”

This list was actually updated on December 31, 2025, but was suddenly announced and took effect immediately on January 6th, without giving Japan any buffer period, leaving Japanese companies completely unprepared to stockpile supplies .

At the same time, China adopted the “long-arm jurisdiction” approach, stipulating that relevant goods could not be re-exported to Japan through third parties such as Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Singapore, otherwise they would be blacklisted. This series of combined punches is intended to make Japan feel the pain .

The Trigger for Sanctions and a Carefully Chosen Timing

The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China clearly pointed out that the root cause of this sanction lies in the recent erroneous remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. She repeatedly declared that “an emergency in Taiwan is an emergency in Japan,” and even hinted at the use of force to intervene, which seriously violated China’s sovereignty and violated the One China principle .

It is worth noting that China’s choice of timing for action is very particular:

1. Utilizing the “Window of Opportunity” in Sino-US Relations: Trump plans to visit China in April this year. Before that, the United States is unlikely to fall out with China over the Japan issue. In fact, Trump is quite critical of Sanae Takaichi for “causing trouble” for the United States on the Taiwan issue, and the US has not publicly expressed support for Japan in this dispute between China and Japan.
2. Uniting with South Korea to Restrain Japan: On January 4th, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung led a large delegation of 200 people to visit China, with a very high standard, accompanied by South Korea’s four major chaebols. Sino-South Korean relations warmed up rapidly, and Lee Jae-myung’s visit was intended to replace Japan’s economic and trade status in China. When China “stabbed” Japan in the back, it happened to have South Korea by its side “showing affection,” with obvious strategic intentions.

From WTO Rules to the “National Security” Sword

Looking back at history, in 2010, China and Japan had a “rare earth war” due to the Diaoyu Islands collision incident. Although China once restricted exports, it was later sued by Japan at the WTO and ruled to be in violation (although the ruling was issued in 2014). Learning from that lesson, China’s sanctions this time no longer rely solely on trade measures, but instead follow the example of the United States and Japan, utilizing the WTO’s “national security interests exemption” clause .

Since Sanae Takaichi declared that she would militarily intervene in the Taiwan Strait, posing a military threat to China, China has reason to prohibit the export of “dual-use” goods that may enhance Japan’s military capabilities based on “national security.” This logic is difficult to be refuted by the WTO in legal terms, making China a user of the rules instead of an enforcer .

168-page List: Precise “Chokehold” Strike

This 168-page list covers many key raw materials that are irreplaceable for Japanese high-tech industries, which can be described as deadly:

1. Rare Earths (especially heavy rare earths):
   • Dependence and Impact: Although Japan has reduced its dependence on China for rare earths from 90% to 60%, it is still heavily dependent on China in the field of heavy rare earths. If China completely bans imports for three months, it is estimated that Japan’s GDP will decrease by 0.11%, with an economic loss of 660 billion yen.
   • Impact: Core industries such as electric vehicle motors, wind power generation, and industrial robots all rely on rare earth permanent magnets. Especially as the Japanese auto industry is shifting towards electrification, this move will severely impact its transformation process.
2. Gallium: China controls 98% of global production capacity. As a key material for phased array radar and 5G communication, Japan is highly dependent on it.
3. Germanium: A key material for fiber optic communication, Japan’s dependence on China is about 68%.
4. Graphite: A key material for lithium-ion battery anodes. China controls 80% of global production, and Japan’s dependence on China is as high as 80%. Once supply is cut off, Japan’s lithium-ion battery industry will face paralysis.
5. Hydrogen fluoride and fluorite: Key raw materials for chip manufacturing. Although Japan can produce high-purity hydrogen fluoride, 87% of its raw material fluorite needs to be imported from China. Since hydrogen fluoride is difficult to store for a long time (only 1-2 months of inventory), once the supply is cut off, Japanese chip companies will face production stoppages.
6. Tungsten: China controls 80% of global production. In addition to military uses such as tank armor-piercing shells, tungsten is also a core material for CNC machine tool cutting tools, and a supply cut will hit Japan’s world-leading machine tool industry.

Anti-dumping Investigation: The Second Round of Strikes and “Gifts”

In addition to export controls, China has also launched an anti-dumping investigation into dichlorodihydrosilane (chip raw material) exported by Japan. This move kills two birds with one stone: it supports Chinese local enterprises (such as Tangshan Sanfu Electronics) and also hands over market share to South Korea and the United States, which can also produce this product, as a diplomatic “gift” to win over the US and South Korea .

Conclusion: Sanae Takaichi’s Dilemma

Faced with China’s thunderous measures, the Japanese government currently has a strong reaction but limited bargaining chips. If it retaliates in kind, it will not only fall into a vicious cycle, but also lose its legitimacy to appeal to the WTO .

China’s goal in this move is very clear: through extreme pressure, to force the Japanese economic circles to pressure the cabinet, either forcing Sanae Takaichi to retract her remarks on “Taiwan emergency,” or leading to the collapse of her cabinet. As the raw material inventory runs out, the pain of the Japanese economic circles will increase sharply in the next few months. This diplomatic and economic game is expected to be decided within six months .