The stock market crashed, and many people who just rushed in were buried.
This involves understanding the behavior of the government.
The first question:
Can the government do whatever it wants?
The government is also made up of a group of people. Since they are people, they all have desires, and they all have desires that cannot be realized. If you start a company and want to make money, can you definitely make money?
Sometimes the situation is stronger than people.
All governments in the world claim that they can make the people rich, but how many can do it? Don’t politicians know that if they really get rich, their position will be more stable?
Which politician has gained widespread support because he has impoverished the people? Impossible.
Therefore, it is not that the government does not want the people to get rich, but sometimes it cannot do it.
Similarly, if the government wants to create a bull market, can it definitely create it?
I can’t say it’s impossible, but should you have a question in your mind, can it really be done? Not necessarily. In this world, most of the goals claimed by governments have not been achieved in the end.
Few can achieve it.
The second question:
Why is it difficult for the government to do some things?
If you start a company and want to make money, but the industry you are in is facing collapse, it is useless no matter how hard you try. For example, if you opened a real estate company and took a few plots of land the year before last, could you make money? It’s difficult even for gods.
Anyone who wants to achieve a goal is faced with the constraints of reality.
The main real constraint is scarcity.
The government also faces scarcity. In the past, there were fiscal deficits, and there was already a lot of debt. Can it continue to issue bonds? Can it continue to increase the deficit?
The United States has pulled its debt to 35 trillion US dollars because the US dollar is the world currency, and this debt is borne by the global people.
Can China do it? It faces more problems than the US government.
So it’s okay to issue a little debt and increase the deficit a little, and it may be able to boost the stock market, but the other consequences will be more.
Of course, there are other ways to boost the market, such as drastic market-oriented measures, which face the constraints of national concepts and the government’s own cognition.
The government is different from a company. A company can take profit increase as its only goal, but the government is a multi-goal institution, and any government wants both.
Wanting both actually shows that there is a conflict between the goals. Therefore, the government will not do something at all costs, because it will lead to the failure of another goal.
The third question
People in the government are also ordinary people, and their real actions also correspond to specific concepts.
If these specific concepts are wrong, it will also lead to the failure of the means to achieve the goal.
If you think that there are many rich people in China now, high-end catering will definitely be popular, and you open a restaurant with an average price of three thousand yuan per customer, you may have to close it in a month this year.
The reason is that your cognition is wrong, and there is a deviation in your understanding of reality.
For example, the Yunnan government wants to protect female employees and does not allow employers to inquire about the marital and childbearing status of female employees. The result is that it makes it more difficult for women to find jobs.
This is also a conceptual error. This kind of conceptual error can actually be seen everywhere. Just the increase in maternity leave has caused the income of countless women to decrease and job opportunities to decrease.
Similarly, can you boost the confidence of the stock market and the economy with a few arrows? Didn’t Abe play it like this? Wasn’t it a disastrous defeat?
By the central bank’s participation in stock speculation, didn’t the Bank of Japan become a shareholder?
A few years ago, the shantytown renovation brought about the result that local governments speculated in real estate and hoarded a large amount of land. Now they are not landlords?
Some people always say that there are so many smart people in the government, will they be less smart than you?
How many experts’ remarks have there been in recent years? You’ve heard too much. Not necessarily the correct view will win.
The fourth question:
The government will also face left and right swings.
For small and medium-sized entrepreneurs, the most common impression of employees is that they are fickle, not only because the market is changing, but also because their own understanding of the market is constantly changing.
The stock market rises and falls, which actually represents changes in people’s concepts.
Whether to stimulate, how large the stimulus should be, and how to stimulate to minimize the negative effects, they don’t know either, and they also need to try and make mistakes.
If they are really wrong, they will also pay a political price.
More often, in the various political declarations you see, there is everything.
Harris and Trump both said they would abolish the tip tax and both announced they would increase welfare. They will do a little of what you want to hear, but they dare not do too much, for fear of offending another group of people.
This kind of left and right swing, doing everything, is the norm of the government.
In the stimulus policy, there are market-oriented measures, some opening up, protecting the business environment and reducing fines, lowering interest rates and lowering the reserve requirement, and spending more money from the treasury.
These policies, in my opinion, have a mutually offsetting effect.
Flooding the market damages the economy, and market-oriented reform promotes the economy. This is a result of left and right swings.
The fifth question:
Why do you believe that the government can do everything?
The government is also made up of a group of people, and they are also ordinary people, not more than you have a head. Some people like to deify the government, thinking that it is omnipotent, a Doraemon, with endless money and inexhaustible means.
Such a wrong understanding will lead to many mistakes.
For example, the government claims to develop an industry, and then you follow, and the result is a mess. Many years ago, the government claimed that China would vigorously develop the elderly care industry, but what about the result? Except for those who receive subsidies, few live well.
You can treat him as a passerby, so you will seriously understand whether there is a market and whether there is the ability to pay.
Since everyone is ordinary people, everyone will make mistakes, so why do you treat the other party as a god?
Breaking this obsession, you can see it more clearly.
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