Seven years ago, I wrote an open letter, hoping that you would lead China towards democratic constitutionalism. That was once the aspiration of the people. You put me in prison for four years. Now, your subordinates are looking for me everywhere, trying to put me in prison again.
But I still have a kind heart. I have a kind heart for all people. I don’t think you are a bad person, just not smart enough. So I advise you again. It is also the expectation of the people: Mr. Xi Jinping, please step down.
You are not a statesman
Statesmen have ideas. At least, they are clear about the direction. Deng was a simple pragmatist, black cat or white cat, reform and opening up. Jiang was the Three Represents, making a fortune in silence. Hu was a harmonious society, not making trouble. What about your ideas?
The Chinese Dream? Copying the United States, the content is unclear. National rejuvenation? Which dynasty or generation is the benchmark? Strong power distorts the market, the economy is declining, how to rejuvenate? Beautiful China? Only focusing on the appearance, what about the people’s pursuit of fairness, justice, freedom, and happiness? Four confidences, eight clarifications, fourteen insistences, a basket of nouns, I don’t know what they are talking about.
Where do you want to take China? Do you know yourself? While shouting reform and opening up, you are also summoning the souls of Marx and Lenin. While talking about modern governance, you are also emphasizing the Party’s leadership in everything. While appeasing private enterprises, you are also making state-owned enterprises bigger and stronger. Democracy and the rule of law, or autocracy? Market economy, or planned economy? Modernization, or the Cultural Revolution? The class struggle of the first thirty years, the reform and opening up of the latter thirty years, you say that the two are not contradictory, where is the contradiction in the world? It’s not that I don’t understand, it’s not that everyone doesn’t understand, it’s that I really don’t understand.
Statesmen are firm in their will and unyielding. Deng went up and down three times, and in the end, it was his “black cat or white cat” that led China. After the June Fourth Incident, he made a southern tour and said that whoever does not reform will step down. Many people fantasized that China would have a strong leader, but you disappointed them. You swayed left and right, and hesitated. Putin seized Crimea, and you also wanted to try in the South China Sea, but you were indecisive and only built an airport. You messed around with the Diaoyu Islands for a year, consolidated the US-Japan alliance, and gave up. You built roads in Doklam, and Modi was tough, so you admitted defeat.
You are not Putin, not Modi, and not Trump. You instinctively like the Cultural Revolution, you are not a leftist, you instinctively lean towards nationalism, you are not a hawk. You are not any faction. You like to go back to the Cultural Revolution, you try when you have the chance, and you shrink back when you encounter a wall. The more confident you are on your lips, the less confident you are in your heart. There is a video of you with your hands in your pockets, and Trump next to you looks at you, and you immediately take your hands out. China is a big country, how can its leader be so unconfident?
Statesmen have a broad mind and vision. You invented the term “arbitrary discussion”, and party cadres complaining became a major crime of corruption. Many intellectuals and social elites were once reformists, with the ideal of democratic constitutionalism, hoping to achieve it gradually. There was still room in the Hu-Wen era, such as Mr. Yu Jianrong, who was once a talent within the system. But in your eyes, those who have the idea of democratic constitutionalism are “two-faced people”, and you resolutely do not use them, and you also suppress them. How many iron-clad “one-faced people” are there? After forty years of reform and opening up, the veterans of the Cultural Revolution are rare animals. Cixi used the Han people Zhang Zhidong and Li Hongzhang. By the time of Zaifeng, she almost only used the Manchus. How many social elites are one-faced people? If you follow the trend and govern the country well, everyone will follow you. If you are a wicked and incompetent ruler, why should others die with you?
Statesmen use people from all over the world, selecting the virtuous and capable. Deng transferred Hu to Beijing and supported him to a high position, without necessarily being a drinking buddy. Although Jiang and Hu had factions, they also knew that various factions needed to be balanced. But what about you, besides the new army of Fujian and Zhejiang, there is nothing else. Only drinking buddies and little brothers can make you feel at ease. It is not about recommending the virtuous and not avoiding relatives, but about forming cliques. If the beam is not straight, the lower beam is crooked, the officialdom is corrupt, who is the victim? Is there no talent in China? Three generations of imperial teachers, Jiang Lang will also be exhausted, a chicken intestine and a small belly, how can they run a thousand miles?
Statesmen understand governance, grasping the big and letting go of the small. Deng held the bridge card, and the big things were settled. You hold ten groups of leaders, and you handle everything, from big to small, from football to toilets. There are too many documents and meetings, you can’t even read them all, how can you have a long-term vision and govern the country? Financial work is also the leader of the group, where is the Prime Minister’s authority? Are you good at economics? If you are not good at it yourself, hand it over to those who are good at it, this is the basic quality of a statesman.
Statesmen make decisions with a sense of reality, with judgment, knowing what is feasible and what is not. But your big projects, such as the Xiongan New Area, the Belt and Road Initiative, and poverty alleviation, are for the impossible, but you don’t know it.
Xiongan New Area, a grand plan for a thousand years, appeared out of nowhere. Unfortunately, there is no favorable timing. Shanghai and Shenzhen rose at the beginning of the reform, China had a huge economic depression, abundant demographic dividends, and the world was optimistic. Today, China has fallen into the middle-income trap, the long cycle of economic downturn, and is surrounded by enemies.
No geographical advantage. History created Shanghai, the first city in the Far East during the Republic of China, Shenzhen is adjacent to Hong Kong, and among the four special economic zones, only Shenzhen has prospered, which is due to geographical advantage. Xiongan is not near the sea, has no transportation, is outside the Beijing cultural circle, and is a waterlogged low-lying area that cannot be cultivated. The infrastructure and transportation alone are enough to waste the people and money.
No human harmony. In the past, reform and opening up was a consensus of the whole country, but now a new city is being built in a puddle, how much consensus is there between the decision-makers, the Party affairs and the State Council? Forcing state-owned enterprise employees to report, and still going back to Beijing on weekends, where is their home? In the past, the construction of the third-line was ordered, and the totalitarianism was at its peak without human rights, but the times are different now.
Relieving the population is a false proposition, it is a problem of one’s own vision, planning, and management, blaming the many people, and wanting to “drive out the low-end”. Building a new city in a place that is not suitable for anything is even more absurd and boundless. The rise of cities is the law of the development of human civilization, have you understood it? No favorable timing, no geographical advantage, no human harmony, how can you just make a thousand-year plan with a slap on the head?
The Belt and Road Initiative seems to be a grand strategy. Exporting production capacity, controlling the economies of weak countries, influencing their politics, and creating a new order of power. The economic goal is to do business with the poor, not to make money, if you can make money, Wall Street would have gone long ago. China’s foreign exchange for decades relies on the rich, on Europe and the United States. Investment is out of control, infrastructure investment is almost generalized to the poor countries of the world, in 5 years, only state-owned enterprises have undertaken more than 3,000 projects, spread over 185 countries. Trillions of wealth is wasted, and the people jokingly call it “throwing money”. Does China have such strong economic strength? What to do with overcapacity? Respect the laws of the market, don’t engage in movements, don’t make trouble. The government assists in exporting, but does not lead, does not force.
The political goal, the strategy of the Third World in those days, was to control dictators of all sizes, that is, to control the politics of the countries, and successfully entered the United Nations. But now, the countries have become democratic, and under the sun, blue-gold-yellow scandals have emerged. The newly elected rulers don’t pay the bill, and many projects are stranded. It seems smart, but times have changed, and it is a case of imitating others, like the story of the orange in Huai Bei.
Poverty alleviation. It sounds very detailed and effective. In a specific natural environment, a certain enterprise supports online celebrity agricultural products, which does have some effect. High-quality agricultural investment and sales should be market behavior, but it is regarded as the result of poverty alleviation. Industrial poverty alleviation should rely on the market rather than the government, and deviating from the laws of the market will eventually fail. Relocation, moving from the mountains to the foot of the mountains, the houses are beautiful on the outside, but there is no employment, life is inconvenient, and there are a lot of vacancies. More ideal, accurate to the individual. Under the market economy, if it is not a serious illness or old age, poverty is mostly caused by laziness and stupidity. If you want to make him rich, give him ten sheep, and after a year, they are gone. Huge manpower and material resources, a waste of time.
This is a simple matter – social security: free education, free medical care for serious illnesses, a monthly pension of 500 yuan, that is enough. What the government should do is to provide a safety net, and leave the rest to the market. But for ten years, the pension has increased from 60 to 100. The resources consumed by poverty alleviation have long solved poverty. Why make a simple thing so complicated? Cognitive inadequacy, rational inadequacy.
You are unable to handle major crises
Statesmen are calm in times of crisis, and see opportunities in crisis. But you are helpless in every major crisis. Just to give three examples.
The Sino-US trade war. If you had a clear understanding from the beginning, responded with humility, regarded the challenge as an opportunity, made up your mind, and deepened reforms, you would not be so passive. Knowing yourself and knowing your enemy is the key to victory. But you don’t know the enemy or yourself, and as soon as you come on stage, you roll up your sleeves and want to fight back tooth for tooth. The other side makes a move, and the outcome is decided in two rounds. Trump is combative, but he needs the other side to cooperate to fight, and the US-Japan and US-Europe trade wars have reached a handshake and peace.
Some people say that they don’t want money, they want the life of the Communist Party. In the 1990s, the Cold War was over, why didn’t the world want the life of the Communist Party? At that time, China was reforming and opening up, and there was still hope. But in recent years, the historical reversal has not stopped, reforms have retreated, democracy has retreated, human rights have retreated, the lifelong system has been restored, the banner of Marxism has been raised high, and the Cold War has restarted, which is not accidental. The Sino-US trade war is not about economics, but about ideology, it is the continuation of the Cold War, the result of the trouble.
Hong Kong’s democratic demonstrations. The world trend is vast, and it is not accidental that Hong Kong’s struggle for democracy has made progress. Deng’s strategy, one country, two systems, fifty years unchanged, and after fifty years, it doesn’t need to be changed, it is not to make Hong Kong align with the mainland, but to make the mainland align with Hong Kong. But for more than twenty years, especially in the past seven years, your party has been aggressive in Hong Kong, constantly eroding freedom and the rule of law. Since the second half of 2018, the major changes in the world pattern have been manifested in Hong Kong, this front-line position, and the citizens have won the anti-extradition movement, and it is easy to defend and attack.
A wise leader should follow the historical trend and let go of Hong Kong’s democracy and freedom. From your own interests, letting go of Hong Kong will not impact the mainland, there are two systems. But you chose the most unfavorable path: struggle – not to allow – more intense struggle – make a little concession – struggle – not to allow – more intense struggle – make another little concession, step by step passive. But from the standpoint of democracy and freedom, it is a rare good thing, which helps to awaken the courage of the mainland people.
The Wuhan COVID-19 epidemic. The first case of infection appeared on December 1, 2019, and by the end of December, Wuhan hospitals were already full, the public security authorities reprimanded and intimidated eight doctors, CCTV refuted rumors, and the government colluded to block the truth. At least on January 12, when the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention announced the virus genome, you should have known, but you delayed the public release of the truth, leading to the outbreak of the epidemic and the disaster of the whole country. The lessons of 2003 are close at hand, don’t you have any sensitivity?
When disaster strikes, the command is wrong, and the deployment is chaotic. With a single order, Wuhan was locked down, not understanding the laws of operation of modern society, it should be precise, professional isolation, you flooded the area, isolating 9 million people. Medical resources are tight, hospitals are overcrowded, a large number of infected people cannot be diagnosed, and even less can be isolated and treated, and the epidemic is spreading rapidly. There are more and more tragedies of infected people committing suicide because they cannot be treated, and fathers being isolated and the brain-damaged teenagers dying. The government’s work should be transparent information, scientific guidance, professional treatment, and active assistance. You claimed to personally command and personally deploy, but it was a mess.
You are not a statesman. Compared with Deng, you are far behind. It’s nothing. But you don’t know it. You think you are more powerful than him, and you want to be on par with Mao. You often mispronounce words, and you are also fond of quoting classics. You are mediocre, but you are promoting personal worship. You were humble when you were young, but you are different now. One is due to human nature, surrounded by people, it is inevitable to inflate. One is due to the system, suppressing speech, leaving only flattery, and no different voices.
Do not go against the tide of history
Not smart, can be forgiven, geniuses are rare. Comparing yourself to Mao, it can be understood, the understanding is limited. Your biggest problem is that you always want to go against the tide of history and go back to Liangjiahe.
Reform and opening up is the retreat of totalitarianism, releasing freedom. The Party gradually withdrew from everywhere, separating the Party and the government, separating the government and enterprises, which is the direction of reform. Power gradually withdrew from the economic field, giving rise to private property and a free market, and there has been more than thirty years of prosperity and progress. But you are obsessed with “the Party leads everything in the east, west, south, north, and center”, state-owned enterprise party committees have the final say, and private enterprises also have to set up party branches, and Feng Lun and others are also forced to retire. The wealth accumulated over many years of entrepreneurship, private property, is unconditionally at the disposal of the Party? Isn’t this communism? The villagers’ autonomy, which has been experimented for many years, has been changed to the secretary concurrently serving as the director. Even the director of the neighborhood committee also has to be a party member. From gradually withdrawing to a full-scale comeback, history is going backwards.
The core of the market economy is private property rights and market allocation of resources. From a large and public ownership to private property rights, from planned decisions to market decisions, the reform trend of more than thirty years. But in the past few years, you have emphasized making state-owned enterprises bigger and stronger. Why don’t you say making private enterprises bigger and stronger? There is prejudice in the bones, and it is still communism in the bones, how can private entrepreneurs feel at ease? What’s the use of more reassurance? Why is there a huge wave after the mission of private enterprises is over? This is China, the painful memory of public-private partnership, the Great Leap Forward, and the Anti-Rightist Movement and the Cultural Revolution are close at hand. The Party’s characteristic is to govern the country through movements, which has gradually faded after many years of reform and opening up. But you like movements. An environmental storm, tens of thousands of enterprises went bankrupt and closed down. It is not the market, but power, that plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources. From market trends to plans, history is going backwards.
Collective leadership, the trend of the Communist Party’s reform for many years. In the 1980s, Deng advocated collective leadership, and after the June Fourth Incident, there was a comeback, claiming to be the second-generation core. Jiang and Hu had a core, but it was basically collective leadership, and the Standing Committee members each managed a piece. But in the past few years, the collective has faded, and the individual has become prominent. About half a year before the ink was splashed in 2018, the news broadcast only had you, and the other Standing Committee members were nowhere to be seen. Huge portraits on the streets and alleys, and the bold words “roll up your sleeves”. After the ink was splashed, personal worship was somewhat restrained, but there is no sign of stopping. Some people say that China needs a strongman. The authoritarianism of Chiang Ching-kuo, China needs it. But you have no intention of following the historical trend. If you are a strongman against the historical trend, you will only harm China. What China needs most is freedom! Only with freedom can there be creation and development. From collective leadership to personal dictatorship, history is going backwards.
Abolishing the lifelong system is a summary of the historical lessons of the Communist Party of China. Jiang and Hu basically followed the previous rules, with two terms. Hu set an example and did not covet power. Putin served for twenty years, taking advantage of legal loopholes when he was young, and he didn’t amend the constitution. A real bull, does he need to amend the constitution? Deng had no position and no title, and whoever he wanted to step down, he would step down. You are different, you openly amended the constitution, and the term limits written into the constitution more than thirty years ago were deleted. Why go to such a bad move? Could it be that someone blacked you? After the amendment of the constitution, The Economist published a series of articles, and the international community’s eyes lit up and understood. An entrepreneur friend said that within six months after the amendment of the constitution, the domestic elites, private entrepreneurs, state-owned enterprise executives, and officials within the system, quickly reached a consensus: he is not good. Restoring the lifelong system, history is going backwards.
Yuan Shikai went against the tide of history, thinking he was very powerful. It was far more than promoting and promoting small favors, the generals were mostly brought out by him from the small station. They turned against him overnight. A real strongman, who is extremely smart and strong after being baptized by blood and fire in battle, has the capital to go against the tide of history, and Yuan Shikai is not even considered. Compared with him, you are far behind. Since Xiangcheng couldn’t do it, what are you dreaming of? Promoting a few generals and officials, and raising the salaries of the military, can you live for thousands of years? Zai Feng did better.
Don’t let stability exhaust China
Because of lack of confidence, there are ghosts on all sides, and they are desperately trying to maintain stability.
More than a decade ago, I occasionally heard that the government was laying off staff, but in recent years, there has been no mention of streamlining. Various security guards and special agents are constantly increasing, and a large number of grassroots civil servants are not doing their jobs, but are busy maintaining stability. Some people say that this also solves employment. Not producing, not creating wealth, but suppressing creation, this kind of employment is not as good as printing money for the whole people. In a country, more and more people do not produce services, but monitor producers, passers-by, and pedestrians, who will support them?
Xinjiang is almost “roads with eyes”. Arbitrary detention in the name of education and training. A friend told a story about Xinjiang, going to the supermarket, four security checks in a few hundred meters. Mobile phones are arbitrarily opened and checked, and personal privacy and dignity are completely lost. A large number of Han people are fleeing, and it is becoming more and more tense and oppressive, even more so than in “1984”. Which regime in ancient and modern China and abroad governs the country like this? The Xinjiang model is also to be promoted in the mainland, city subway security checks, more than 200 million cameras, and is still increasing rapidly.
For the sake of stability, Wuhan public security intimidated and humiliated the doctors who disclosed the truth, CCTV refuted rumors and suppressed speech, concealed the epidemic, and finally caused a national disaster. Stability overrides everything, overriding the freedom, dignity, and happiness of the Chinese people. And is the system really stable? Afraid of all changes and accidents, eliminating all unstable factors in the bud, regarding all protests as disorder and chaos, and suppressing and attacking with all means. There is a common sense in medicine that those who have not caught a cold for many years are prone to incurable diseases. A system that is too stable and lacks change, once it gets sick, there is no cure, and it digs its own grave.
The cost of maintaining stability has long exceeded the military expenditure, and is still increasing rapidly. As soon as stability is mentioned, there is money, and it is endless. All other economic and people’s livelihood must give way. Pensions are divided into three, six, and nine grades, farmers cannot afford serious illnesses, and the money is used for social security, and the money goes to maintain stability. Society is more and more unfair, and more and more unstable. China has fallen into a vicious cycle of more stability and less stability.
Unlimited investment in infrastructure, unlimited throwing money, and more unlimited maintenance of stability, you are hollowing out China, creating a “beautiful poor country” where everyone is in debt. Economic recession, huge debts, and some prefecture-level city governments have not been able to pay salaries. Where does the huge cost of maintaining stability come from? In the end, it relies on printing money, inflation, and the whole nation pays the bill. A large number of citizens were originally house slaves, and were deprived of a round by the government. Inflation deprives them of another round. If this continues, it may not be long before most Chinese will fall into poverty. In the late years of many dynasties, the finances were exhausted, and the empire exhausted its wealth before it ended. Thirty years of reform and opening up, back to the pre-Cultural Revolution overnight, is this the fate of the Chinese people?
China is not the high-spirited, prosperous world in your dreams. I am deeply worried about the future of China, and I am worried that this increasingly tense system will suddenly break and civil society is not yet ready. As responsible citizens, we are builders, and we have always been so for many years. I hope that the Party’s self-proclaimed internal democracy for many years has not completely died, and there is still some room for improvement, and also give civil society more time to grow.
You lamented that when the Soviet Union ended, there was not a single man. One is high above, and ten thousand are prostrate on the ground, the autocratic system determines that there are only slaves and flatterers around the emperor, how can there be a man? The emperor’s new clothes parade, the people dare not speak out. Now, I am the child who tells the truth.
Sometimes looking up at the starry sky, who am I, why did I come to this world? Have you ever asked yourself? Sometimes standing high and looking back at the world, myself is as small as dust. Have you looked back? Life is so hurried, why be obsessed, why be vain? Have you pondered?
The way of the great road, the world is for the public, why is there a single color of the country? The world trend, vast and mighty, why go against the current? After two terms, go home and rest. The scriptures say that the dragon has regrets, don’t wait until the embarrassing tragedy, it will be too late to regret.
Citizen Xu Zhiyong
January 2020, in exile
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