Zhihu Q&A | What is the most serious problem in China right now?

Q: What is the most serious problem in China right now?

@Mr. Lyon:

It is no exaggeration to say that the birth rate of newborns is already in a precarious state.

Pregnant women in our country usually have a habit of establishing a file during prenatal checkups, so in April of each year, the number of newborns nationwide can be estimated, because those who conceive in May will be born the following year.

So, how many files were established this year?

Estimated 7.88 million.

What is the concept of 7.88 million?

According to the China Birth Population Yearbook;

7.88 million is equivalent to the number of births in 1941. (Actually, it was over 8 million in 1941)

That is to say, to reach this number,

It must be completed:

1. War is raging ☑️

2. The total population base of the country is only 400 million ☑️

3. People are displaced ☑️

4. Whether they are gentry or wealthy, everyone is in a precarious situation ☑️

5. Plague is rampant, it is difficult to get medical treatment, and the infant mortality rate is extremely high ☑️

A population of 400 million, under the circumstances of war, can only give birth to about 8 million a year.

Have you all seen the movie 1942? The birth population that year was nearly 9 million.

But in the prosperous 2023, this population is actually 7.88 million…

Just ten days ago, the number of marriage registrations on 520 shocked everyone again.

Because in the past, a peak in registrations would occur on 520 every year;

Civil affairs bureaus across the country would arrange for a large number of staff to work overtime on this day, which is a convention.

But this year’s 520 was like this:

Jiangsu, 11,156, a sharp drop of 25.6%

Guangdong, 12,450, a sharp drop of 40%, nearly halved

Sichuan, 16,000, a sharp drop of 36%

Fujian, 6,270, a sharp drop of 38%

Guizhou, 6,873, a sharp drop of 53%, directly halved

Hubei, 9,455, a sharp drop of 46.6%, nearly halved

Hunan, 4,576, a sharp drop of 74%, close to delisting

Originally, many experts believed that after three years of the pandemic,

the number of marriages this year should have seen a surge.

But what surprised everyone was that, compared to last year when people couldn’t leave their homes, the number of registrations this year decreased by an average of 30%,

Many civil affairs bureaus even had the embarrassing situation of closing early.

If we estimate based on the number of marriages, the number of newborns in 2024 will not exceed 6.5 million.

Then next year, our country will officially surpass South Korea and become the world’s number one country in fertility decline.

Several questions that are very popular on Zhihu recently:

1. Why are young people now getting married late or not getting married at all?

2. Why don’t young people today want to get married and have children?

3. Why does society now show a trend: more and more young people are unwilling to get married?

4. Marriage rate and birth rate hit a 42-year low! Why are most of the post-90s generation unwilling to get married?

5. There are 47 million fewer people born after 2000 than the post-90s generation, what does this reflect?

6. The birth population has decreased by 43% in 4 years, what factors mainly affect the decline?

7. The number of marriages has fallen below 8 million pairs for the first time since 2003, and people over 30 account for nearly half of the marriages, how do you view this phenomenon?