Qin Lou Hong Yu | The United States is generous as a friend and ruthless as an opponent.

The US passed a rather awkward bill, upgrading China from a developing country to a developed country.

This really feels like Master Ma has been clamoring to challenge Tyson, and then Tyson suddenly announced he would accept the challenge. Of course, the common people might be thrilled, after all, Donnie Yen beat up Tyson in ‘Ip Man’, and everyone believes this is not difficult. Therefore, Master Ma, who ultimately bears everything, has a very complicated inner feeling.

This proposal from the US came out last year, and now it has officially passed the congressional vote and been upgraded to law. I also did some interpretations at the time. The status of a developing country is more useful in the WTO, and it enjoys more rights in participating in trade activities.

For example, it can set up tariff barriers to protect local enterprises for original accumulation; then it can also engage in legal dumping, selling goods to others cheaper than selling to its own people (below a certain value); in addition, there is the well-known most-favored-nation treatment. And so on…

These are trade conveniences that advanced industrial countries concede to backward countries to avoid the jungle law of international order. Later, Trump said that this rule had loopholes, and China, being so rich and the second-largest economy in the world, was still in the ranks of developing countries. So he launched a trade war, wanting to bypass the rules and fix it himself. As a result, due to the failure of his second term, it ended without a hitch.

Now Biden takes over, and by forcing China to ‘graduate’, he defends the existing rules. Before this, South Korea was also named, and later proactively upgraded to a developed country. Of course, South Korea’s minimum monthly salary is equivalent to more than 10,000 RMB, which is a matter of course for a developed country. China is to a large extent ‘demanded’ out, it is the result of the joint efforts of a group of ‘Ma Baoguo-style’ expert think tanks, seeking a hammer and getting a hammer.

Of course, it is also a fact that China is very rich. An old grandpa who works honestly until retirement has a nine-digit sum, and an ordinary employee of a state-owned enterprise can show off six houses, which is enough to make those Americans feel ashamed. At the same time, it is also a fact that China is very poor. The price of Pfizer’s new coronavirus drug is lower than that of El Salvador (international pharmaceutical companies also price according to the degree of development), and the survey data estimates that the number of people with a monthly salary of around 2,000 is as high as 900 million. Coupled with the high unemployment rate of young people, the Kong Yiji literature is in vogue…

China’s national conditions are extremely complex, and the wealth structure is distorted, making it impossible to define the nature of the country with existing standards. However, developed countries also do not have specific, strict standards, so whether or not to ‘graduate’ depends to a large extent on the US’s intentions. Including when entering the WTO, China did not meet the standards, and the US said to let you in, and you came in.

Therefore, the real problem is that the Americans’ view of you has changed. On the one hand, this may be because China has changed its strategy of keeping a low profile in recent years, excessively promoting anti-Americanism, and intentionally or unintentionally challenging the international order. On the other hand, it is the role played in the Russia-Ukraine conflict that is too biased towards Russia.

Simply put, the Americans have smelled hostility and threat. They will feel that in the past, I helped you achieve modernization, providing hundreds of billions of dollars in surplus every year, allowing you to have sufficient funds to allocate global resources. However, you are using US dollars to strongly support Russia, purchasing a large amount of Russian oil at prices far exceeding the market. And you have been anti-American in public opinion year after year, which is unacceptable. Therefore, they decided to decouple.

Declaring China a developed country is an important step in decoupling. China’s main way to obtain foreign exchange is trade. By canceling China’s trade ‘privileges’, it will be difficult for China to maintain its current surplus under the framework of developed countries. Compared to Trump’s radical unilateralism, Biden’s revision of the existing order, although slow to take effect, is more stable and solid.

In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war is in fact a geopolitical crisis in Europe. China’s lack of empathy with Europe in humanitarian terms is a major mistake. Even signs of being pro-Russian have been captured, thereby accelerating the EU’s decoupling strategy. Foreign trade companies revealed that their original European customers have canceled orders, and after inquiries, it was indeed due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Looking back, the current international situation is a bit like the 1950s, only the positions have been cleverly swapped. At that time, China entered the Korean War as a volunteer army, while the Soviet Union watched from the sidelines, quietly watching the Chinese people consume themselves with Western countries. Now the battlefield has shifted to Eastern Europe, and China, in a similar posture to the former Soviet Union, is watching Russia and the West kill each other and consume each other.

For China, the outcome of this war seems to be no longer important, what is important is the post-war global pattern and trend. Although I also believe that the historical farce of the Cold War is unlikely to be repeated, the situation of camp division seems inevitable.

While European and American companies are withdrawing from Russia, China is entering the Russian market in a big way to fill the declining industrial system of Russia. It is reported that Chinese cars have occupied 40% of the sales in Russia. Due to the withdrawal of Western companies, the lack of parts has led Russians to exchange their German-made BMWs and Audis for Geely and BYD…

This is both like the amazing re-emergence of the Soviet Union’s economic construction aid to China in the mid-20th century (positions swapped), and also a symbol of the further close integration of the Chinese and Russian economies. However, this combination has a fatal flaw in theory, and neither side can ensure the absolute independence of the monetary system.

When the rubles earned exceed the demand for oil and other energy, the two economies will begin to reject each other. The Soviet Union’s aid to China was also similar. Selflessness does not conform to human nature. When the Soviet Union tried to integrate militarily but was rejected, it ruthlessly withdrew all experts.

From the Korean War to the comprehensive deterioration of relations between China and the Soviet Union, it was only a decade. This is a valuable historical experience. I believe that the next decade will be ‘US-Russia icebreaking, gymnastics diplomacy’. With the nature of Putin and others, it will not take ten years at all.

Undoubtedly, the United States is ruthless as an opponent, and generous as a friend. The Russians will not forget the tens of thousands of aircraft, hundreds of thousands of cars, millions of tons of grain, and tens of millions of pairs of military boots that the United States provided during World War II… Just as they are doing for the Ukrainians today, and as they generously aided China during the War of Resistance.

Including after joining the WTO, the hundreds of billions of dollars in surplus every year, there is really no other country on this planet that can give it. Now they have decided to decouple, and the empty containers in the port are piled up like mountains. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the profits of enterprises above a certain size in January-February have plummeted by 22.9%. Under the wave of unemployment, young people suddenly find themselves becoming Kong Yiji, but the country has suddenly entered the ranks of developed countries…

Let’s stop here. Perhaps these are not necessarily bad things. Master Ma’s challenge to Tyson is a dream come true, and we should offer flowers and applause!