The whole internet has been discussing the child-rearing subsidy these days. 3600 yuan isn’t a lot, but it’s definitely a little. In remote mountainous areas, it’s a year’s income, but in first- and second-tier cities, it’s only a few months’ worth of formula money.
But this at least shows an attitude: the country wants to directly address the future population problem by giving out money.
So, how serious is our current population problem?
In fact, starting in 2022, China’s total population has been declining for three consecutive years, with a decrease of more than 1 million each year. The number of births in 2023 was only 9 million, which is already half of what it was ten years ago.
If this trend continues, in less than ten years, China may face a population crisis like Japan and South Korea, which means an extreme shortage of labor, the near collapse of the social security system, and a slow economic growth.
Let’s put it this way, our population problem has reached the point where we can’t pretend not to see it.
So, does giving money actually work?
Let’s first look at the East Asian sterilization circle.
South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world. As early as 2013, they started giving money to young families, with a one-time payment of 1 million won (equivalent to over 5,000 yuan) for each newborn. In the first two years after the child’s birth, they can also receive a subsidy of 2,900 yuan per month.
But the embarrassing thing is that South Korea’s fertility rate has not only failed to rebound, but has instead created a new historical low in 2024, with only 0.72, which means that on average, a young couple can’t even produce a child. Their common idea is that the cost of having a child and getting married is too high, and it’s better to enjoy life. The poor are not worthy of having the next generation.
And Japan’s situation is not much better.
They have long implemented child allowances. From birth to graduation from junior high school, Japanese children can receive money every month. Over 18 years, they can receive 6.4 million yen, which is 105,000 yuan. For families with three or more children, the subsidy will be doubled, and the total subsidy is roughly estimated to reach 290,000 yuan. This is also a relatively high level of money distribution worldwide.
But what is Japan’s birth rate? In 2024, it is 1.15, and the number of births has fallen below 700,000 for the first time, forcing the Japanese government to consider levying a single tax, which means that young people who do not have children will have to subsidize those who have children.
Looking at it this way, South Korea and Japan’s subsidies are not small, but they still can’t solve the trend of young people not having children.
Then is the Nordic region better?
No!
You know, the Nordic countries are famous for their high welfare. For example, Sweden, Norway, and Finland, the children of each family can not only receive cash subsidies, but also enjoy free medical care and free education. Both spouses can also get more than a year of super-long parental leave.
Let’s put it this way, the Nordic governments have given all the benefits they can, except for the positions of civil servants.
But after decades of implementing welfare policies, the fertility rates in these countries are still not ideal. Norway and Sweden have fallen to 1.4 and 1.5, and Finland has even fallen below 1.3, which is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.
The only one that has received positive feedback by giving money is France.
Their fertility rate has long been maintained at around 1.8, which is one of the European countries that has both money and can give birth. But the key reason is not that the French get more money, but that the whole society is very friendly to raising children.
France not only has cash subsidies, but also has policies to flexibly support the workplace environment, such as flexible working hours, a complete childcare service, and even companies take care of employees with children.
Let’s give a few examples so that everyone can feel it.
For example, France allows parents to actively apply to reduce working hours during the child’s early years. As long as they work no less than 24 hours a week, they can keep their original salary and position.
The government’s nurseries can accept infants and young children as young as two months old, and they are open all day on weekdays. They also charge according to the family’s income level, with a minimum of only a few euros (per day). If the family hires a private nanny or relatives and friends to take care of the child, the state will also provide a certain amount of cash compensation.
But everyone should pay attention, the native French are not very active in having children. The ones who are frantically taking advantage of the government’s benefits are the Muslims who have come from the Middle East and North Africa. Their families have dozens of people, and their main source of income is having children and receiving subsidies, which also supports France’s population base.
But no matter what, from the data, France’s policy is successful. Young people not only get financial support, but more importantly, the relative tolerance of the workplace and society. Their experience also tells us that giving money is very important, but it’s far from enough to rely on giving money alone.
Let’s go back and look at China’s new policy this time. The annual childcare subsidy of 3600 yuan is an average of 300 yuan per month. From the actual cost, the formula, diapers, medical expenses, and childcare fees during the child-rearing period, this money is indeed not enough.
But everyone should also be able to see that although the money is small, it also reflects a clear attitude of the country: to strive to reduce the pressure of young people in raising children, and to make childbirth an economically supported thing.
3600 yuan is the starting point. Places with good economies can increase the amount on this basis, and first-tier cities may even double or more the subsidy.
In fact, not only is money being given out, but in recent years, local governments have also been trying more diverse policies, such as extending maternity leave, expanding childcare resource construction, and including assisted reproduction in medical insurance, and so on.
Especially in Tianmen City, Hubei Province, in 2024, through housing benefits, pre-natal subsidies, and childcare allowances, the local birth rate increased by 17% year-on-year. The Tianmen government gives not only money, but also improvements in living and housing conditions.
So, the problem is very obvious. Subsidies are very important, but the factors that really affect whether young people want to have children, in addition to economic costs, also include the workplace environment, housing conditions, childcare services, and other comprehensive factors.
In fact, in the final analysis, young people today are making a choice between life and childbirth. It’s too hard for one person to support a family. If two people raise a child, they worry about being optimized in the workplace.
If companies can more flexibly support employees’ family needs, such as providing longer maternity and paternity leave, establishing childcare facilities, or implementing flexible working hours, then this kind of “tangible” support may be more convincing than giving money directly.
In addition, the cost of children’s education is also an important expenditure that young families have to consider.
Although the country is already promoting “double reduction” to reduce the burden of extracurricular training, Chinese parents are accustomed to “chicken baby”, and the more the country reduces, the more they roll. To truly achieve education burden reduction, it is necessary to increase public education resources and ensure that every child can fairly enjoy high-quality education services.
This is not only an economic issue, but also a matter of social fairness and resource allocation.
Of course, regarding the issue of having children, governments all over the world have a headache. Even Indians don’t have many children. In the final analysis, urbanization is the best contraceptive. The more developed the economy, the lower the fertility rate.
Of course, the introduction of this subsidy policy itself also gives a positive signal: the country is paying more and more attention to the actual needs of young families, and will definitely provide them with support from multiple angles such as economy, childcare, housing, and medical care in the future.
3600 yuan is the direction, the attitude, and also represents a trend of the future.
No matter what, giving money is a good thing, and it is also the first step to promote fertility, but it is far from enough.
After all, having a baby is not only about money, but also about the future.
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