In the discussion about Li Ka-shing selling the port, the most core and fundamental question is:
If the operating rights of the two ports in Panama are transferred from Li Ka-shing’s Hutchison Whampoa to an American company, what impact will it have on China?
The most widely circulated statement online is that once the ports at both ends of the Panama Canal are controlled by the United States, they can ban Chinese ships from passing through the Panama Canal at any time, once again choking China.
This statement is very naive, so the understanding threshold is extremely low, so many people believe it. Obviously, it is completely wrong.
First, ports are not equal to locks. Passing through the Panama Canal must go through locks, but it does not necessarily have to dock at a port, and the locks are controlled by the Panamanian government. Whether a ship can pass through the Panama Canal has nothing to do with which company operates the port.
Then, there are 5 major ports at both ends of the Panama Canal. In addition to the two operated by Li Ka-shing’s Hutchison Whampoa, there are also companies from Singapore, Taiwan, and the United States that operate the other ports, so there is no situation where there is no other choice. Because there is competition, it is also absurd for a certain port to discriminatorily charge higher fees for Chinese ships.
Finally, if a port is operated by a company from country A, it can arbitrarily choke country B, then in the past few years, has China choked the United States through the terminals operated by Li Ka-shing’s company?
In the final analysis, whether Chinese ships can pass through the Panama Canal and whether they can dock at the ports of Panama depends only on whether the international relations between China and Panama (which will be affected by the relationship between China and the United States) have broken down. The specific company operating the port is an irrelevant factor.
So, does that mean that there is no difference between these two ports being operated by Li Ka-shing’s company or by an American company? That’s not the case, there is still a difference.
The main differences here are reflected in the following aspects:
First, there is no difference for regular commercial ships docking at the port, but there is a big difference for ships with gray or even black purposes docking at the port.
If the port is operated by “one of their own” or a foreign company with a good relationship, in theory, they can turn a blind eye to these gray or black ships, and even help cover up the inspection by the Panamanian government.
However, this “national interest” cannot be put on the table, nor does it necessarily meet the “interests of the masses”.
Second, the supply and docking of military ships will have a great impact. Although civilian ports cannot be directly used as naval bases for a certain country, the convenience of docking and supply will be greatly improved when the port is operated by “one of their own”.
But it should be noted that the convenience mentioned here is only limited to peacetime, and only limited to scenarios such as routine training and short-term stopovers of military ships. Once the relevant countries enter a state of hostility or war, whether military ships can pass through the Panama Canal and whether they can dock at the ports of Panama is entirely up to the Panamanian government (and the US government, which has a huge influence behind it).
Having this kind of convenience is of course good, but it is not reliable at all in the “critical moment”, even if it is operated by a Chinese state-owned enterprise.
Third, it has a significant impact on the continuous management of relations with the Panamanian government.
It is a well-understood principle that two countries with long-term business dealings are more likely to gain mutual trust and establish good relations. As long as the operating rights of the port are in hand, the relevant companies and the countries behind the companies can continue to have cooperative contacts with the Panamanian government and can continue to make friends with influential people in the Panamanian government.
Maintaining good relations in peacetime and being able to find people to help speak up when needed is a universal principle all over the world. This work is not so immediate, but it is also very important.
But, again, there is a but. The biggest variable in the relationship between China and Panama is actually the United States. If China and the United States have a good relationship, Panama has no reason to make things difficult for China as a major customer. Conversely, if China and the United States have a bad relationship, the Panamanian government will also find it difficult to be close to China.
In the “extreme situations” and “critical moments” that many people imagine, Panama cannot stand on China’s side, and having a hundred ports there is useless. Because the influence that the United States exerts on Panama in military terms is something that China cannot catch up with, let alone a 6th generation fighter, even a 12th generation fighter is useless.
Because China is too far away from Panama, while the United States is too close to Panama.
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