According to reports, starting from August this year, the urban survey unemployment rate data for different age groups, including young people, will be suspended:
Why is the publication being stopped?
There are two core reasons.
① The main task of students is to study. Whether students looking for jobs before graduation should be included in the labor force survey statistics is a matter of debate, and further research is needed;
② With the improvement of education levels in China, the time young people spend in school is increasing. In the labor force survey statistics, the definition of the age range for young people also needs further research.
Moreover, the news indicates that suspending the release of this data does not affect the overall unemployment rate statistics:
Then the question arises.
The report says that with the continuous expansion of the student population and the increase in study time for young people, the relevant statistics of the labor force survey need further research.
Since the student population has expanded and the study time has increased, the statistics related to these people looking for jobs will definitely change. Since there are changes, how can it not affect the overall unemployment rate statistics?
This is the first question I don’t understand.
The second question that I don’t understand is that since the number of people being counted has increased, the numbers should also be calculated using the original statistical methods. But why suspend the publication of the data?
I feel that various sectors of society have different views on some statistical methods, and further research is needed. Since no consensus has been reached, it should be calculated and published using the original statistical methods first, and then published using the agreed-upon methods after a consensus is reached. Why suspend the publication of the data?
And when this news hit the trending searches, it reminded me of another piece of news from before.
That is, last month, a professor from Peking University published an article called “The Youth Unemployment Rate That May Be Underestimated.” In this article, Peking University professor Zhang Dandan stated that the maximum value of the unemployment rate in March was 46.5%:
It is important to know that the youth unemployment rate in July 2022 was 19.9%, in April 2023 it was 20%, in May 2023 it was 20.8%, and in June 2023, it was 21.3%.
So, is Professor Zhang Dandan’s method of calculating the unemployment rate the most scientific and reasonable method? I can only say that I don’t know.
But I know that data, this kind of thing, doesn’t lie. Because data is always interconnected with data. Therefore, publishing a single piece of data or not publishing a single piece of data is actually completely meaningless.
For example, real estate. Once real estate becomes popular, it means that the steel and cement market will inevitably become popular, and it also means that the data of construction workers will also increase, and it also means that the scale of financing and loans related to real estate from the banks will also increase… and so on.
And this data will be stored in the data of relevant industries such as industry and information technology, human resources, and banks. Therefore, in fact, it is possible to roughly judge the trend of the real estate market from one or several single pieces of data.
Therefore, data, this kind of thing, doesn’t lie and cannot be fabricated. Because once you fabricate the data of your own industry, it means that the data of all industries must be changed, otherwise, the data of your industry will be out of sync with the data of other industries. However, no matter how capable a person is, it is impossible for them to change the data of all industries.
Similarly, the unemployment rate data is actually the same.
The unemployment rate is actually related to the economic growth rate, and it is also related to various consumer confidence indexes, and it is also related to the company’s cancellation rate and company layoffs, and it is also related to the number of member registrations and the growth of attention on recruitment websites, and it is also related to the rise or fall of the stock market…
Therefore, when the unemployment rate is not published, if someone wants to know the unemployment rate, they can generally judge what the unemployment rate is like from other data.
Therefore, not publishing the unemployment rate is actually not very meaningful for some experienced or intelligent people, because as long as they want to, they can completely judge the approximate data of the unemployment rate from other data.
In fact, the answers to many things do not need to be specifically stated with specific numbers. Because the answers to many things can actually be roughly judged from another thing.
For example, when the exam results come out, if you ask your child, “How was the exam today?” If the child answers: “I want to eat fried chicken legs today! Plus a bottle of Coke! And I’m going to the amusement park tomorrow!” Then this generally indicates that his exam score this time will be much better than the last time.
Discover more from 自由档案馆
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.