Say Wealth Cat | Unprecedented! Unemployment rate breaks 20%! Young people are too difficult

Just now, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics came out, a bit surreal.

Foreign trade exports, total retail sales of consumer goods, service industry, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) all increased.

But there’s a piece of data that startled me—the unemployment rate.

Especially the unemployment rate of young people.

In April, the surveyed unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group nationwide was 20.4%, breaking 20% for the first time!

So far this year, the youth unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months (no data in January), from 16.7% at the end of last year, an increase of 3.7 percentage points.

The data reflects that it’s difficult for young people to find jobs, very difficult!

One in five young people is unemployed.

Generally speaking, a surveyed unemployment rate of 7% is regarded as the red line for unemployment warning. The unemployment rate of young people in our country has been exceeding 7% for many years, crossing the red line.

Fans in the background often ask why the age range for this statistic is 16-24 years old.

According to the indicators of the National Bureau of Statistics, employed persons refer to those aged 16 and above, who have the ability to work, and engage in certain social labor for the purpose of obtaining labor remuneration or operating income.

So, those over 16 who are not studying can be regarded as the labor force.

The youth unemployment rate is extremely high, but the nationwide urban surveyed unemployment rate is 5.2%, which even decreased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.

The reason is that the surveyed unemployment rate of middle-aged and elderly labor force has decreased.

In April, the surveyed unemployment rate for the 25-59 age group was 4.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month.

Why are young people the only ones suffering?

Previously, internet and real estate companies were employment options for young people entering the workplace.

But in the past two years, private real estate companies have struggled to survive, and layoffs have been widespread. We previously calculated the changes in the number of employees of real estate companies in 2022, and 34 real estate companies laid off 127,600 people.

Compared to the proportion of layoffs, the recruitment of real estate companies is very small. You can see this chart for details (data statistics as of April 9) ~

And internet giants are also constantly reducing costs, adjusting structures, and laying off many employees.

For example, Alibaba, yesterday there was news that the Damu Academy’s autonomous driving business adjusted, and about 70% of the employees (nearly 200 people) of the business were laid off.

Of course, more importantly.

When they are uncertain about the future market and are not prepared to expand production.

It costs to lay off old employees, and it doesn’t cost to not hire new employees.

At today’s press conference, the relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics also said: “The structural problems of employment are still relatively prominent, the number of college graduates this year has reached a new high, and the unemployment rate of young people is still high, and it is still necessary to continue to increase efforts to stabilize and expand the employment of young people.”

Let’s take a look at real estate sales, which seem to be good, rebounding from the bottom.

But it also reveals a more cruel reality.

Look:

Sales of commercial housing were 3975 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8%;

But the sales area is still falling, down 0.4%.

The area is less, the total price is more, is it a big rise in housing prices?

In fact, the cruel reality is: cheap houses can’t be sold, and what can be sold are expensive houses.

Look, the unsold area of commercial housing at the end of April has risen to 644.87 million square meters, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year.

The inventory of houses has increased again!

The gap between good locations and bad locations, good houses and bad houses, is getting bigger and bigger.

In the past, selling two houses in my hometown could make up the down payment in a first-tier city.

In the future, it may take four, eight…

Finally, speaking of the recent hot issue of deflation.

The relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics also said that there is no deflation in China at present, and there will be no deflation in the next stage

“The basic fundamentals of China’s long-term economic growth have not changed, we have nearly 900 million labor force, the quality of the labor force is constantly improving, these are the most important basis and guarantee for us to overcome various difficulties and challenges.”

He said.