Recently, with the start of the school season, some self-media accounts revealed that Sanqiao Elementary School in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, had only 22 students in 5 classes, but was equipped with 23 full-time teachers.
More teachers than students, it’s unbelievable! Such a staffing ratio is very rare globally! Therefore, a reporter called the Pudong New Area Education Bureau for consultation, and was told that the situation was true. Many people feel like they’re going to explode when they hear this news! Everyone has heard of a remote mountain school with only one teacher and a few students, or even just one student. But this is Shanghai after all, and Pudong New Area is the largest district in Shanghai, how could this happen? Although it may be due to relocation, the fundamental reason is the decline in the birth rate.
This also reflects some problems.
For example, the severe decline in newborns in Shanghai.
In 2024, the total number of newborns in Shanghai was only about 100,000, a decrease of over 40% compared to the 169,000 births in 2019, and the demand for elementary school enrollment has shrunk accordingly.
In previous years, kindergartens were competing for students, but this year parents may face the awkward situation of having no choice – nearby private kindergartens have already given up and closed down because they couldn’t recruit students!
In 2024, the number of children in kindergartens was 35 million. It is estimated that in 2025, the number of children in kindergartens will be over 31 million, which is a decrease of over 16 million compared to 48 million in 2021! A decrease of over 4 million per year.
This year, kindergartens began to enroll children born in 2022/2023, and the birth rate began to fall below 10 million in 2022.
From 2022 to 2024, the numbers are:
9.56 million, 9.02 million, 9.54 million.
Therefore, the number of children in kindergartens will further drop to 27-28 million.
Along with the decrease in children, a large number of kindergartens are starting to close down, from 294,900 in 2021 to an estimated 240,000 in 2025.
In just four or five years, 50,000 kindergartens have been closed.
According to national statistics: in 2024 alone, 20,000 kindergartens were closed, and the trend of decline is getting bigger and bigger.
The reduction of kindergartens, the most direct impact is the unemployment of kindergarten teachers.
In 2023, the number of full-time teachers in preschool education decreased by 170,000, and in 2024, it decreased by another 241,800, with the total number dropping to 2.8319 million.
Over several consecutive years, the cumulative number of unemployed people may exceed 1.5 million!
And the sharp decline in the number of children in kindergartens will bring a visible impact to elementary schools.
The “2024 National Education Undertakings Development Statistical Bulletin” released by the Ministry of Education shows that the scale of elementary schools reached its peak in 2023. In 2024, a total of 16.1663 million students were enrolled in elementary schools nationwide, a decrease of 2.6125 million compared to the previous year.
And in 2024, there were a total of 136,300 ordinary elementary schools nationwide, a decrease of 7,200 compared to 2023. Everyone may feel that the decrease of 7,200 elementary schools is not high.
In one year, 20,000 kindergartens were closed.
In one year, 7,200 elementary schools were closed. What is this concept?
Let me give you an example:
In 2024, the total number of ordinary elementary schools in Anhui Province was only 5,739, including 8,147 ordinary elementary schools in Shandong Province in 2024. Comparing this, it means that the reduction in the number of elementary schools each year is almost equivalent to the number of all ordinary elementary schools in a province.
These unemployed kindergarten teachers did not turn to live streaming as rumored. 30% of the unemployed kindergarten teachers turned to the 0-3 year old childcare field to take care of younger children.
After all, live streaming is not a stable profession, and only a few people become internet celebrities by digging gardens.
On the other hand, some wealthy families with multiple children have started to hire “family education instructors” to take care of young children. The salary of a family teacher is several times higher than that of a housekeeper who only does housework, and is generally several times higher than the salary they receive in educational institutions.
According to relevant research, the skill transfer rate of kindergarten teacher education guidance and elderly care skills is as high as 72% (communication/nursing/health and nutrition guidance/psychological assessment/ability), and the gap in elderly care social worker positions exceeds 3 million.
Interestingly, the main transformation direction of the closed kindergartens is also these:
1) Develop integration of childcare, transforming 3-6 year old classes into 2-3 year old toddler classes. For example, Shandong subsidizes compliant toddler classes with 10,000 yuan per childcare place, and the per capita funding for inclusive childcare is the same as that for kindergartens. Under this trend, the school age for kindergartens will be further advanced in the future.
2) Develop into elderly activity centers to supplement the current shortage of nursing homes.
3) Some places are also transformed into community libraries, elementary school托管机构 (托管机构 – this is a placeholder, it is not translated) and so on.
Unemployed teachers can get back to work by passing a professional certificate, and the work location doesn’t change.
Few kindergartens are used for other purposes, such as restaurants, clubs, or even converted into villas, as everyone might think.
This is because the land nature of most kindergartens is educational land. Whether it is converted into commercial land or residential land, it will face a huge amount of land payment.
The price of residential land is two or three times that of educational land, and it also faces very complex approval procedures because it involves educational resource planning.
And the current transformation of these kindergartens relies on financial subsidies. For example, some areas provide 500,000-2 million yuan in start-up funds for the transformation of community centers.
The most difficult thing is how to save these 10,000 private kindergartens, or 2,000 non-inclusive private kindergartens.
Some kindergartens have to transform into “托管+研学 (托管+研学 – this is a placeholder, it is not translated)”, offering nature education courses on weekends, and cooperating with nearby elementary schools to develop “幼小衔接 (幼小衔接 – this is a placeholder, it is not translated)” courses, extending from 3-6 years old to “0-6 years old full-cycle care + after-school service for teenagers”. Some kindergartens have also transformed into elderly and child care, setting up elderly care areas and childcare areas in the same venue, providing comprehensive services such as meal assistance, health management, and entertainment activities, such as the Shenzhen “老幼一体化 (老幼一体化 – this is a placeholder, it is not translated)” demonstration project.
It is estimated that a considerable part of kindergartens will gradually become “community service complexes” in the future!
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